Iran strikes stall progress but fail to force a deal, says retired general

A new wave of U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran will likely weaken the country but will not end the war, according to retired Army General Joseph Votel.

Votel, who led U.S. Central Command from 2016 to 2019, now chairs the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point. He spoke with NPR reporter Leila Fadel about the goals of a potential post-election bombing campaign. Votel noted that many likely targets have already been hit and that Iran has demonstrated it can rebuild them. He said strikes can buy time, punish Tehran, and degrade capabilities, but they have not changed how Tehran calculates the war's trajectory. Fadel observed that the Iranian government appears more hard-line and willing to launch bold counterattacks. Votel responded that Washington must first define a clear objective. He stated that the end state must be defined, including how the war will be declared finished. In his view, that end state hinges on the enrichment issue and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Once that goal is set, Votel argued, military, economic, diplomatic, and information pressure should all aim for it. He emphasized that military force is only one piece of national power. Votel pointed to the financial front as the area with the most visible progress. The blockade and sanctions are adding pressure, he said, citing reporting that Iran's so-called ghost fleet has run out of oil. He noted that this approach takes time but shows definite movement.

Votel acknowledged that U.S. aims have been hard to read. He said much of the strategy centers on reopening the Strait of Hormuz so oil and commerce can move more freely, which would help lower gas and diesel prices at home. The second concern is Iran's nuclear program. He added that Iran uses proxies to create regional instability, including a link to the Houthis across the Arabian Peninsula, but described Hormuz and enrichment as the principal worries.

To bring Iran to the negotiating table, Votel stressed the need for a clear statement of objectives and coordinated use of military, economic, and diplomatic tools. He also emphasized the patience required to see that approach through.

On military readiness, Votel said American offensive power in the region is substantial and the ability to strike is not in question. However, he identified missile defense as a potential constraint. Earlier reporting has described heavy pressure on defensive interceptors protecting U.S. forces, regional partners, and critical infrastructure. Votel assessed that offensive capability is adequate, while defense may face a bit of a constraint.