Statistics Lebanon: 66.4% of Shi'ites Want State Control of Hezbollah Arms

66.4% of Lebanese Shi'ites now support handing Hezbollah's weapons over to the state, according to a survey released in mid-October. The poll was conducted by Statistics Lebanon in September and surveyed 800 members of the community that has traditionally formed the core of the group's support. This figure marks a dramatic change from earlier estimates that suggested widespread resistance to disarmament.

The data indicates a strong preference for the national military. Approximately 78.5% of respondents expressed trust in the Lebanese Armed Forces, and 51.1% identified the army as the institution best suited to guarantee long-term security. In contrast, only 16.5% selected Hezbollah for that role. The results challenge the militant group's long-standing argument that its arsenal is essential for defending Lebanon against Israel.

Respondents also showed a desire to centralize decision-making power. According to Kataeb.org, 71.1% said decisions on war and peace should rest solely with the Lebanese state. Only 5.9% believed Hezbollah's leadership should play a larger role in shaping the country's future. These findings suggest a move away from the dual authority structure that has characterized Lebanese politics for decades.

Despite the shift toward state control, sentiment toward Hezbollah remains mixed. About 67.4% said the group had failed to meet its goals in the war with Israel or achieved only some of them. Furthermore, 42.1% voiced disappointment or anger about the group's leadership and the conflict's consequences. Nevertheless, 59.5% still reported some level of trust in the organization, including 37.1% who said they had a great deal of trust.

The new results stand in stark contrast to a May 2026 survey by Lebanon's Information International, which found that 87.5% of Shi'ite respondents opposed disarming Hezbollah. Researchers Orna Mizrahi and Moran Levanoni, writing for Israel's Institute for National Security Studies in June, argued that Hezbollah's influence rests on its social networks and the historical marginalization of its supporters. They noted that intimidation has often discouraged dissent within the community.

Local signs of wariness have emerged in the south. In Tyre, property owners reportedly opposed opening a branch of the Hezbollah-linked financial institution Al-Qard Al-Hassan in their building, fearing it could be targeted in an Israeli strike. Hezbollah has announced aid of up to $14,000 for eligible families in Beirut and its southern suburbs whose primary homes were destroyed, and up to $12,000 in other areas.

The group has suffered major losses, including the killing of leader Hassan Nasrallah in September 2024 and heavy destruction in southern villages during a new war that began in March 2026. Roi Kais of Israel's public broadcaster KAN noted that Hezbollah's support networks and status still sustain its strength, provided no other entity fills the vacuum left by its weakened military presence.